Miami congressional race tightens

One of Florida’s most closely watched congressional races is becoming increasingly competitive, with recent polls showing Republican U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar and Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez separated by almost nothing.

Salazar is seeking another term representing Florida’s 27th Congressional District, which covers parts of Miami-Dade County, including Miami, Coral Gables, Palmetto Bay and Cutler Bay.

Rodriguez, a longtime South Florida television journalist, is trying to flip the Republican-held seat for Democrats.

And recent polling suggests the race could be much closer than it appeared earlier this year.

One Poll Shows a Tie

A Bendixen & Amandi International poll conducted Aug. 25–30 among 600 likely voters found:

María Elvira Salazar: 45%
Eliott Rodriguez: 45%

The poll was conducted for Rodriguez’s campaign, meaning it is a Democratic-sponsored internal poll and should be interpreted with that in mind.

But another Democratic-sponsored survey also showed a very close contest.

A Tulchin Research poll conducted Sept. 8–13 among 600 likely voters found:

María Elvira Salazar: 47%
Eliott Rodriguez: 46%

That survey was sponsored by House Majority PAC, a Democratic-aligned political group.

While both polls have Democratic connections, the results have helped fuel growing national attention around the race.

Election Analysts Say the Race Is Tightening

It isn’t only Democratic polling pointing toward a more competitive contest.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently moved Florida’s 27th District from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” indicating that Salazar remains favored but the race has become more competitive.

That is a significant change for a district Donald Trump carried by about 15 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.

Salazar herself won reelection comfortably in 2024.

Immigration Could Be a Deciding Issue

Immigration has emerged as one of the biggest issues separating the candidates — and potentially one of the most important issues for voters in this heavily Latino district.

Salazar, a Republican, has publicly criticized parts of President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement strategy.

In a September campaign advertisement, she told Trump that some immigration enforcement efforts had gone too far and said Hispanic voters who supported him in 2024 were feeling betrayed.

Trump responded by saying he remained supportive of Salazar but disagreed with her approach.

“I’m very strong on the borders — and she isn’t,” Trump said.

Rodriguez has attacked Salazar’s record on immigration and argues that the Trump administration’s enforcement policies have gone too far.

Cost of Living Is Also Taking Center Stage

Rodriguez has made Miami’s affordability crisis another central issue in his campaign, focusing on housing costs and the financial pressure facing working families.

Salazar, meanwhile, is campaigning on her record in Congress and argues that Republican economic policies are helping families and businesses.

The candidates also differ sharply over U.S. policy toward Cuba, another issue with particular significance in Miami-Dade’s Cuban-American community.

National Democrats Are Paying Attention

The race is now drawing additional national attention.

On Monday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced that Rodriguez had been added to its “Red to Blue” program, which supports Democratic candidates running in competitive Republican-held congressional districts.

That designation could bring additional national resources and campaign support into the Miami race.

With Election Day approaching on November 3, Florida’s 27th District has gone from what once appeared to be a relatively comfortable Republican seat to one of the congressional races worth watching in Florida.

For now, Salazar still holds advantages as the incumbent — but the latest polling suggests Rodriguez is giving her a serious fight.