Is El Niño ‘protecting’ Florida from hurricanes?

Florida has experienced an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season so far, and one major factor may be El Niño.

According to NOAA, El Niño conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the 2026 hurricane season. The climate pattern typically increases wind shear over the Atlantic, making it more difficult for tropical systems to develop and strengthen.

NOAA currently expects a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with a 75% chance of below-normal activity. Its forecast calls for 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major hurricanes.

The quiet conditions have been especially noticeable during September, normally one of the busiest periods of the season. The National Hurricane Center reported no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic as of September 19.

But does that mean Florida is “protected”? Not completely. El Niño can reduce the overall number and strength of Atlantic storms, but it cannot prevent a hurricane from forming or reaching Florida.

Hurricane season continues through November 30, so residents should continue monitoring official forecasts and remain prepared.