Strait of Hormuz to remain closed — A cat-and-mouse game with the U.S. continues (opinion)

Ervin Shkulaku/DUANEWS

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States meets a series of conditions, prolonging a crisis that has disrupted one of the world’s most important energy routes and contributed to pressure on global oil prices.

Tehran’s decision puts the Iranian government at the center of the continuing disruption in the strait.

But the consequences extend far beyond Iran and the United States. Restricted shipping through Hormuz affects energy supplies, increases uncertainty in global markets and can ultimately leave consumers thousands of miles away paying more.

Iran Keeps the Door Closed

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until seven Iranian conditions contained in an earlier interim agreement with Washington are met.

Tehran’s message is clear: it is not prepared to restore normal passage through the waterway without receiving concessions in return.

That gives Iran significant leverage.

Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Disrupting that route can affect Gulf exporters, international shipping and energy markets around the world.

The World Is Paying the Price

The connection between disruption in Hormuz and higher oil prices is not merely theoretical.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has linked disruptions to oil flows through the strait with higher and significantly more volatile crude prices.

Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel during periods of severe disruption, demonstrating how quickly instability around this relatively narrow waterway can spread through global markets.

Iran’s decision to keep normal passage restricted therefore does not affect Washington alone.

Consumers, businesses and governments far from the Persian Gulf can also feel the consequences through higher transportation, manufacturing and energy costs.

Is Iran Deliberately Trying to Raise Oil Prices?

An important distinction is necessary.

There is strong evidence that disruption involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to higher oil prices.

Iran publicly presents its position as leverage in its confrontation with Washington. Tehran is seeking concessions involving sanctions, U.S. military and maritime pressure and other elements of the broader dispute.

Regardless of Tehran’s stated motivation, however, the economic effect is clear: restricting one of the world’s most important oil routes creates upward pressure and uncertainty in energy markets.

That economic pressure also gives Tehran another bargaining tool.

Iran’s Islamic Dictatorship

Iran is governed by an authoritarian Islamic system that is widely described as a theocratic dictatorship. Ultimate political and national-security authority rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rather than with officials who are fully accountable to voters.

The Iranian people do not enjoy many of the fundamental political and civil freedoms associated with democratic societies.

Freedom of expression, freedom of the press, peaceful assembly and political opposition are severely restricted. Authorities have imprisoned journalists, activists, protesters and political dissidents, while women and girls face extensive legal and social restrictions imposed by the state.

Elections exist, but candidates are subject to vetting by powerful unelected institutions, and voters cannot freely replace the country’s supreme political leadership through elections.

This matters when discussing the Strait of Hormuz.

Decisions capable of affecting oil prices and economies around the world are being made by an authoritarian government whose own population has limited ability to challenge its most powerful institutions or determine major national-security policy.

And an important distinction must be made: the Iranian people are not the Iranian regime.

Ordinary Iranians should not automatically be blamed for decisions made by a government under which they themselves face significant restrictions on fundamental rights and freedoms.

A Cat-and-Mouse Game With Washington

Despite the confrontational rhetoric, diplomacy has not completely disappeared.

Iran presents conditions. Washington responds, including through intermediaries. Tehran demands that certain steps happen first, while the United States seeks concessions of its own and wants broader issues addressed.

Then another proposal arrives.

The confrontation increasingly resembles a geopolitical game of cat and mouse — except the stakes include global energy supplies.

Tehran appears to calculate that prolonged disruption and its economic consequences can increase pressure on Washington.

The United States, meanwhile, is betting that sanctions, military pressure and Iran’s own economic difficulties can push Tehran toward compromise.

Each side wants the other to move first.

Who Is Responsible for Hormuz Remaining Closed?

On the immediate question of restricting normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran bears significant responsibility.

Tehran itself is publicly saying that it will not fully reopen the strait until its conditions are satisfied.

However, the broader confrontation cannot accurately be reduced to a single Iranian decision. U.S. sanctions, military operations, maritime pressure and the wider regional conflict are also part of the crisis.

Still, Iran controls an extraordinarily powerful part of the equation: its ability to allow or obstruct the return of normal maritime traffic through Hormuz.

And right now, Tehran is choosing to use that leverage.

The World Waits

For Washington and Tehran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a bargaining chip.

For much of the rest of the world, it is an economic problem.

As long as normal traffic remains disrupted, uncertainty will continue hanging over energy markets. A diplomatic breakthrough could ease that pressure. Another military escalation could make the situation considerably worse.

For now, neither Iran nor the United States appears ready to make the first major concession.

The cat-and-mouse game continues — and the rest of the world is helping pay the price.